Patterns and Emerging Trends in Global Ocean Health

International and regional policies aimed at managing ocean ecosystem health need quantitative and comprehensive indices to synthesize information from a variety of sources, consistently measure progress, and communicate with key constituencies and the public. Here we present the second annual global assessment of the Ocean Health Index, reporting current scores and annual changes since 2012, recalculated using updated methods and data based on the best available science, for 221 coastal countries and territories. The Index measures performance of ten societal goals for healthy oceans on a quantitative scale of increasing health from 0 to 100, and combines these scores into a single Index score, for each country and globally. The global Index score improved one point (from 67 to 68), while many country-level Index and goal scores had larger changes. Per-country Index scores ranged from 41–95 and, on average, improved by 0.06 points (range -8 to +12). Globally, average scores increased for individual goals by as much as 6.5 points (coastal economies) and decreased by as much as 1.2 points (natural products). Annual updates of the Index, even when not all input data have been updated, provide valuable information to scientists, policy makers, and resource managers because patterns and trends can emerge from the data that have been updated. Changes of even a few points indicate potential successes (when scores increase) that merit recognition, or concerns (when scores decrease) that may require mitigative action, with changes of more than 10–20 points representing large shifts that deserve greater attention. Goal scores showed remarkably little covariance across regions, indicating low redundancy in the Index, such that each goal delivers information about a different facet of ocean health. Together these scores provide a snapshot of global ocean health and suggest where countries have made progress and where a need for further improvement exists.     

Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging or reemerging infectious diseases in a community with heterogeneous contact pattern: Using data from Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza as an illustrative example

Emerging and re-emerging infections such as SARS (2003) and pandemic H1N1 (2009) have caused concern for public health researchers and policy makers due to the increased burden of these diseases on health care systems. This concern has prompted the use of mathematical models to evaluate strategies to control disease spread, making these models invaluable tools to identify optimal intervention strategies. A particularly important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology is the basic reproduction number, R_0. Estimation of this quantity is crucial for effective control responses in the early phase of an epidemic. In our previous study, an approach for estimating the basic reproduction number in real time was developed. This approach uses case notification data and the structure of potential transmission contacts to accurately estimate R₀ from the limited amount of information available at the early stage of an outbreak. Based on this approach, we extend the existing methodology; the most recent method features intra- and inter-age groups contact heterogeneity. Given the number of newly reported cases at the early stage of the outbreak, with parsimony assumptions on removal distribution and infectivity profile of the diseases, experiments to estimate real time R₀ under different levels of intra- and inter-group contact heterogeneity using two age groups are presented. We show that the new method converges more quickly to the actual value of R₀ than the previous one, in particular when there is high-level intra-group and inter-group contact heterogeneity. With the age specific contact patterns, number of newly reported cases, removal distribution, and information about the natural history of the 2009 pandemic influenza in Hong Kong, we also use the extended model to estimate R₀ and age-specific R₀.     

Practitioner versus participant perspectives on conservation tenders

Extensive clearing of native vegetation on rural properties throughout Australia over the last century has generated significant damage to biodiversity. Conservation tenders have been broadly used to reduce the detrimental impact of such widespread clearance. To date, Australian conservation tender research has largely been limited to program evaluations and landholder surveys. This analysis differs by comparing and contrasting the views of non-landholders involved with these programs with those of participant landholders. The non-landholder group consists of individuals with involvement in conservation tenders across Australia. By contrast, the landholder group consists of individuals with participation experience in a series of Victorian tender initiatives. Each group is surveyed to investigate the drivers of cost-effectiveness within tender programs and landholder participation. This analysis explores these two perspectives, revealing important convergences and divergences in opinion. Both practitioners and landholders indicate that programs supported by close agency–landholder relationships and offering flexibility to landholders are most likely to succeed, particularly where landholders perceive the tender instrument to be fair. Whilst practitioners emphasise the role of transaction costs issues and program characteristics in achieving cost-effective biodiversity outcomes, landholders indicate that these factors are less important to participation rates. This research is important to guide future implementation of tender programs both in Australia and internationally.     

Focus: Addiction: Relapse Prevention and the Five Rules of Recovery

There are four main ideas in relapse prevention. First, relapse is a gradual process with distinct stages. The goal of treatment is to help individuals recognize the early stages, in which the chances of success are greatest. Second, recovery is a process of personal growth with developmental milestones. Each stage of recovery has its own risks of relapse. Third, the main tools of relapse prevention are cognitive therapy and mind-body relaxation, which are used to develop healthy coping skills. Fourth, most relapses can be explained in terms of a few basic rules. Educating clients in these rules can help them focus on what is important: 1) change your life (recovery involves creating a new life where it is easier to not use); 2) be completely honest; 3) ask for help; 4) practice self-care; and 5) don’t bend the rules.     

Germination and Emergence of Primed Grass Seeds Under Field and Simulated-field Temperature Regimes

Seed priming may enhance establishment success of cool-seasonrange grasses which must compete with annual weeds for earlyspring moisture. Previous priming studies have confirmed germinationrate enhancement for these species but relative treatment effectsunder field-temperature conditions have not been assessed. Weprimed seeds of thickspike wheatgrass [Elymus lanceolatus(Scribn.and J. G. Smith) Gould], bluebunch wheatgrass [Pseudoroegneriaspicata(Pursh) Löve], Sandberg bluegrass (Poa sandbergiiVasey.) and bottlebrush squirreltail [Elymus elymoides(Raf.)Swezey] and evaluated their relative emergence rate in threesoil types as a function of spring-planting date. Germinationresponse was simultaneously evaluated in laboratory germinatorsthat were programmed to simulate the field-temperature regimeat planting depth. Seed priming enhanced both germination andemergence rate with the greatest effect occurring during theearlier, cooler planting dates. Total emergence and emergencerate in the field were lower than for the equivalent germinationresponse in the laboratory. Thermal-germination response wasmodelled and predictions developed for evaluating potentialgermination under late winter/early spring soil-temperatureregimes. Modelling results predicted that greater germinationenhancement would have been possible at earlier planting datesthan were measured in the field experiment.Copyright 2000 Annalsof Botany Company Bunchgrass, germination, emergence, priming, rate, temperature     

PGJ2 Provides Prolonged CNS Stroke Protection by Reducing White Matter Edema

Few clinically effective approaches reduce CNS-white matter injury. After early in-vivo white matter infarct, NFκB-driven pro-inflammatory signals can amplify a relatively small amount of vascular damage, resulting in progressive endothelial dysfunction to create a severe ischemic lesion. This process can be minimized by 15-deoxy-Δ^12,14-prostaglandin J2 (PGJ₂), an analog of the metabolically active PGD₂ metabolite. We evaluated PGJ₂''s effects and mechanisms using rodent anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (rAION); an in vivo white matter ischemia model. PGJ₂ administration systemically administered either acutely or 5 hours post-insult results in significant neuroprotection, with stereologic evaluation showing improved neuronal survival 30 days post-infarct. Quantitative capillary vascular analysis reveals that PGJ₂ improves perfusion at 1 day post-infarct by reducing tissue edema. Our results suggest that PGJ₂ acts by reducing NFκB signaling through preventing p65 nuclear localization and inhibiting inflammatory gene expression. Importantly, PGJ₂ showed no in vivo toxicity structurally as measured by optic nerve (ON) myelin thickness, functionally by ON-compound action potentials, on a cellular basis by oligodendrocyte precursor survival or changes in ON-myelin gene expression. PGJ₂ may be a clinically useful neuroprotective agent for ON and other CNS infarcts involving white matter, with mechanisms of action enabling effective treatment beyond the currently considered maximal time for intervention.     

Differences in Energy Expenditures and Growth Dilution Explain Higher PCB Concentrations in Male Summer Flounder

Comparison of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations between the sexes of mature fish may reveal important behavioral and physiological differences between the sexes. We determined whole-fish PCB concentrations in 23 female summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus and 27 male summer flounder from New Jersey coastal waters. To investigate the potential for differences in diet or habitat utilization between the sexes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios were also determined. In 5 of the 23 female summer flounder, PCB concentrations in the somatic tissue and ovaries were determined. In addition, we used bioenergetics modeling to assess the contribution of the growth dilution effect to the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes. Whole-fish PCB concentrations for females and males averaged 87 and 124 ng/g, respectively; thus males were 43% higher in PCB concentration compared with females. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios did not significantly differ between the sexes, suggesting that diet composition and habitat utilization did not vary between the sexes. Based on PCB determinations in the somatic tissue and ovaries, we predicted that PCB concentration of females would increase by 0.6%, on average, immediately after spawning due to release of eggs. Thus, the change in PCB concentration due to release of eggs did not explain the higher PCB concentrations observed in males. Bioenergetics modeling results indicated that the growth dilution effect could account for males being 19% higher in PCB concentration compared with females. Thus, the bulk of the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes was not explained by growth dilution. We concluded that a higher rate of energy expenditure in males, stemming from greater activity and a greater resting metabolic rate, was most likely the primary driver for the observed difference in PCB concentrations between the sexes.     

A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour

Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market price of an equity index option.